Cutting-edge statistics yield new insight into attributing, projecting climate change
Projecting the future of extreme weather events and their impact on human life, the environment and vulnerable ecosystems locally and across the globe remains a complex task in climate research -- and one in which statisticians are increasingly playing key roles, particularly through the development of new models. The December issue of CHANCE examines complexities of intense, massive data collection and statistical analysis techniques in climate research and features new proposed statistical methodology that could be a "game changer" in understanding our climate system and in the attribution of extreme climatic events. Changes in events related to atmospheric circulation, such as storms, cannot be characterized robustly due to their underlying chaotic nature. In contrast, changes in thermodynamic state variables, such as global temperature, can be relatively well characterized. "Rather than trying to assess the probability of an extreme event occurring, a group of ...